The Power of the (Unused) Vote in Ireland

The people who don't vote hold change in their hands but how do we awaken their sense of responsibility?

40.3% of eligible voters did not vote in the 2024 Irish General Election. This is the lowest turnout since 1923. With the exception of 2011, when people were clearly irate after the economic crash, the voter turnout has steadily declined for decades. It seems that the election simply doesn’t matter to a growing cohort of Irish voters.

While canvassing in Galway-East in the 2024 General Election, it felt that there was an upsurge in the appetite for change but that failed to materialise when the ballots were counted. Across thousands of conversations I had campaigning, the first question was often “who are you with?” — with the reception being considerably warmer when they learned I was an Independent candidate.

A small percentage of conversations stood out and could be categorised as follows: (i) die-hard party-loyalists who were typically elderly and not for moving come hell or high water; (ii) deeply angry dissenters (across all ages) who have come to wonder if their voices have ever been heard and (iii) the hopeful voters, who believe their vote still has value. Then there’s the fourth category, who never came to the door — I can only assume they are in the 40% who just don’t vote.

Make no mistake, the mood for change was there on the ground in conversation but it seems to take decades for change to happen in any meaningful way. The non-voter needs to own their part in the status quo. This starts with the realisation that every vote does count.

Support For FF / FG continues to decline

FF / FG have been part of government (including Confidence & Supply) since 2016, so effectively they are now two sides of the same coin. Taken together, their influence over Irish politics is dwindling — even though the media will have you believe they ‘won’ the right to govern. If half of the 40% of non-voters turned up and voted against the two Civil War parties, their influence would have waned further. They are very much reliant on the elderly vote. They know this — expect to see more young candidates (under 30) emerge over the course of the next two elections. They need to start appealing to younger voters, or face oblivion in the next 10 years.

Significance of not voting compared to performance of other parties

While FF / FG continues to slide, SF and Others (SocDems, Aontú, Independent Ireland) continue to make ground, albeit slowly. The significance of the cohort that do not vote simply cannot be ignored. It is a lifeline to the Civil War parties who would otherwise be in terminal decline.

FF took a hammering in 2011 election following the economic crash and while FG benefited, they have not been able to sustain that performance and arrest the combined slide of the two main parties. Since 2016, the “Did Not Vote” cohort has been greater than the performance of the two main parties combined and this year, 2024, the non-voters outnumber those who voted for the three main parties (FF / FG / SF) – this is a staggering statistic. The future or Ireland lies in the hands of people that can’t be bothered to vote.

FF / FG Influence Will Continue To Decline

In 1981, FF and FG shared 81.6% of the vote on a 76.5% turnout — only in 1932 did they fair better. This 63% satisfaction with FF / FG has been in terminal decline ever since and today, the two main parties share 43% of the vote — which in reality only represents 25.5% of the electorate given that 40% don’t vote. Their combined number of voters is significantly behind the non-voter cohort.

Unfortunately, in practical terms, this means very little until the non-voter re-engages with the political process. The established, well-funded parties who know how to play the game at election time have a considerable advantage over new, self-funded candidates who lack the resources to sustain serious campaigns.

So where to next for the political system in Ireland?

The stage is set until 2029, barring any major surprises, but fragmentation seems to be a trend that will continue — more coalition governments and growth of smaller parties. I suspect that come 2029, there may be a backlash towards Independents who align themselves to government parties post-election. The independence of these politicians is flexible. But then perhaps this gets forgotten over time? Or perhaps, the deeply embedded “Better the Devil You Know” mentality will keep political dynasties in pinstriped suits for generations to come.

There needs to be an appetite to re-engage the sleeping voter. Larger parties appear to have little motivation or need to do so. Tactics to re-engage voters are often partisan, which exacerbates distrust and perpetuates the status quo. Maybe this is by design. For FF and FG, supporting the illusion of re-engagement campaigns is far less terrifying than the reality of awakening 40% of the electorate en masse. The result though, as we have seen, is further polarisation and disinterest which is deeply damaging.

The best option to relax the rapid, right-to-left pendulum swing we’ve seen in Ireland might be to introduce compulsory voting. In theory, broader participation should result in more palatable policies for the majority of voters?

The hard truth though is that the remedy is likely to be more reactive than proactive. It will take something seismic — like the last global financial crash — to re-ignite the disenfranchised voters. Only a catastrophe will spur the “I’m alright, Jack!” cohort into using their vote and even then it may be short-lived.